Alternative Fuels Transition to Gain Momentum After 2030, Say Industry Leaders

Shipping’s shift towards alternative fuels is set to accelerate markedly after 2030 as new emissions regulations take effect, industry executives told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore. 

While the decade ahead will see only incremental uptake owing to trade volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, they forecast a significant ramp-up in the subsequent ten years.

Chief Executive of Maersk Oil Trading, Emma Mazhari, described the transition as “stop-start,” reflecting uneven fuel availability and unclear policy signals. However, she said the period from 2030 to 2040 will be decisive. 

“Between 2030 and 2040, I think this is where we’re going to see the real kind of volume shift to low carbon fuels,” said Mazhari.

Mazhari pointed to regulations such as the European Union emissions trading scheme and upcoming maritime fuel standards as the main drivers of change. She noted that tanker operators already observe growing supplies of bio-LNG, renewable methanol and other low-carbon blends at major European bunkering hubs. 

“We can already see now when we bunker in Europe, there is an increased supply of low carbon fuel… so there’s definitely a lot of change coming,” Mazhari added.

“If we invest in new assets now, they have to be dual-fuel, so that we have the optionality also to make sure that we can recoup the investments on a long-term scale”.

Dual-fuel vessels can switch between conventional marine fuels and low-carbon alternatives, allowing operators to retain flexibility as markets evolve.

Chief Executive of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), Takeshi Hashimoto, said that over the next five to ten years the industry will lean on “proven products” such as LNG and methanol to achieve initial emissions cuts. 

MOL is also trialling wind-assist technologies to reduce fuel burn on its new LNG carriers. Hashimoto acknowledged that the sector’s decarbonisation journey has been uneven. 

“Our progress has been stop and go,” Hashimoto said, “though the development of low-carbon marine fuels like green ammonia, green methanol and biomethane will be an imperative for the industry over the longer term”.

“Decarbonisation as a necessity and a strategy for shipowners will be there despite whatever we are hearing from the White House,” said managing director at Tata NYK Shipping, Amitabh Panda.

The IMO’s target to cut carbon intensity by 40% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 sits at the heart of these discussions. Regional schemes such as the EU’s expanded emissions trading and FuelEU Maritime rules are beginning to shape fuel choices and bunker infrastructure investments in Rotterdam, Antwerp, Singapore and elsewhere.
 

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