Maritime Choke Point Disruptions Could Cost Global Trade $14bn Annually

A new study has revealed the vulnerability of global shipping to disruption, estimating that blockages at key maritime choke points affect $192 billion worth of trade annually, resulting in economic losses of about $14 billion.

The research was published in Nature Communications by academics at the University of Oxford. It highlights how congestion, geopolitical tensions, piracy, terrorism, and extreme weather combine to threaten the flow of goods and energy supplies through the world’s most critical sea routes.

The study analysed 24 major choke points, including the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Strait of Malacca, which serve as key routes for international commerce. 

Researchers found that disruptions at these locations lead to around $10.7 billion in direct annual economic losses, equivalent to 0.04% of global trade. Countries such as Egypt, Yemen, Iraq, and Panama were particularly exposed due to their reliance on at-risk passages. 

An additional $3.4 billion is lost globally each year through higher shipping costs, as freight rates spike when vessels are forced to reroute, raising transport expenses and consumer prices worldwide.

“Our global economy depends on just a handful of maritime chokepoints,” said lead author of the report, Dr Jasper Verschuur. “When one of these narrow passages is disrupted, the consequences can quickly ripple across continents. Understanding these risks is vital for building resilience into global supply chains”.

The research found that many threats are interconnected. Armed conflict and terrorism often occur together at choke points such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Bosporus, and the Lombok Strait. 

Natural hazards also overlap, with around 40% of tropical cyclones affecting more than one choke point simultaneously. These overlapping risks mean multiple choke points could be disrupted at the same time, severely limiting the world’s ability to reroute ships and maintain trade flows.

“The co-occurrence of hazards shows how interlinked our maritime system really is. A single event in one part of the world can trigger or amplify risks elsewhere,” said co-author of the study, Dr Johannes Lumma. “Analysing these dependencies helps us anticipate compound disruptions and better prepare for them”.

The vulnerabilities identified by the researchers show the cascading effects of choke point disruption, from factory shutdowns due to missing components, to price increases felt by consumers across continents. 

“Maritime chokepoints may be geographically small, but they have an enormous impact on how the global economy functions,” said co-author and Director of the Oxford Programme for Sustainable Infrastructure Systems (OPSIS), Professor Jim Hall. “Keeping them open and secure is a global priority. By identifying where and how the system is most vulnerable, we can help governments and businesses strengthen resilience to future shocks”.

The paper points out that reducing risks will require strategies tailored to the specific choke points each country or company depends on. Suggested measures included maintaining emergency stockpiles, diversifying supply chains, investing in security, and developing insurance products to cover rare but severe disruptions.

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